Given I consider Florida to be a “control group” as the state is basically doing everything to what the experts have recommended, I thought it would be a good idea to look at the impact of Omicron on Florida. Florida’s newest weekly report is out and … Wow! Omicron is DIFFERENT. Very different. And — this is critically important — because, and only because, of universal testing, intense focus, and widespread reporting we are in for a wild ride. The Omicron experience is NOT going to be like previous waves, not at all. In fact, it looks like it’s going to be a whole lot better.

Right out of the gate, Omicron BLEW OUT the testing stats this week:

1. In Florida cases jumped over 400% in one week, springing from about 30,000 the week before to over 125,000. To date we’ve never seen anything like it. The media lied to us repeatedly over the last two years by suggesting cases were increasing geometrically, “doubling”, when in fact they weren’t, but now it looks like that might be happening.

To put this in context, at the peak of last summer’s wave, they hit 151,749 cases. At the PEAK. That was in the 10th week of their summer wave. Currently to this point, they’re only in the third or fourth week of the winter wave, and they’re now within striking distance of the prior peak.

This proves that Omicron is spreading, and it’s spreading SUPER DUPER FAST.

2. Florida’s positivity ratio almost tripled — in one week! — mushrooming from 5.4% to 13.8%.

3. The Sunshine State’s cases per 100K ballooned by 420%, skyrocketing from 134 to 569.

4. Their R-naught, the measure of how fast a virus is spreading, went from a stoic 0.59 to 1.68. Since 1.0 is the threshold point where an epidemic is either expanding (over 1.0) or shrinking (under 1.0), Florida would now be in the grips of a real, fast-expanding pandemic.

So, even without genetic testing to confirm things, this HAS to be Omicron. While it’s a guess, it’s a safe one. We know that Delta didn’t spread anywhere close to this fast.

Now some of you may be reading this and thinking to yourselves that this is BAD NEWS. Not so my friends, there’s a very bright side. To see it, all we need to look at is what DIDN’T blow out:

6. Despite the insanely high cases, deaths fell, that’s right fell. Reports of “covid-involved” deaths decreased from 39 to a record weekly low of only 29. This is especially remarkable because any Covid-positive death is counted, even if the person died from some other cause (allegedly excepting true accidents). With so many people testing positive, you’d expect Covid-positive deaths to also increase; at least, to some extent. Not the case thus far!

7. Although weekly cases increased by almost +100,000 over the previous week, Florida’s hospitalizations increased by only +750. Again, since ANY Covid-positive patient is counted, regardless of whether they were admitted for Covid or some other reason and were asymptomatic, you would EXPECT hospitals to report higher bed use when cases are rising.

So, while CASES quadrupled, up by a whopping 400%, hospitalizations only increased only by about 45%.

THIS is what de-coupling looks like. Deaths and hospitalizations are NOT mirroring the increase in cases anymore. Up until about two weeks ago, total weekly hospitalizations ran between 10-15% of total weekly cases. Not now. Now, hospitalizations are only 1.8% of cases.

Just look at the attached chart. Compare cases to beds, and then compare positivity rates to beds. You’ll see what I mean. There’s a clear historical correlation between cases, positivity rates, and bed usage. But not anymore.

Their 7-day case average as of December 23rd was almost 18,000, with only 1,900 hospitalized patients. But in the summer, there were over 12,000 hospitalized patients in the week they hit 18,000 average cases.

Just back on August 3, over 25% of the hospital beds were in use for Covid-positive patients. But now it’s only around 4%.

The deaths report is even more amazing. Their prior minimum was 32 weekly deaths, back in July. Then, after the summer wave, they nearly reached the same low point at 33 in the week of November 11. Death reports crept up a little, but then WHAM. They’ve suddenly been buried in cases, but deaths FELL to a new record low, even lower than the earlier minimum.

In other words, the deaths figures aren’t correlating to the case numbers. They’ve also de-coupled, like the hospitalization numbers.

If this season peaks after 10 weeks like the last one did, they could see nearly every Covid-naive Floridian infected with what seems clearly to be a non-lethal variant. And then the pandemic will be over.

This is pretty good news and the best part of all it’s not AT ALL comparable to prior years.